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Bet And Win On A Wide Range Of Sports At 888 Sport India – Most sports bettors have heard of expected value, but few know its true meaning. Even fewer of them apply this concept to their bets. Here’s everything you need to know about expected value and why it’s probably the most important factor in sports betting ROI.

In its simplest form, expected value in sports betting is a way of measuring the difference in odds between the bookmaker’s expectations and the bookmaker’s expectations.

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Bettors score their odds through betting lines, which the bookie sees assigned to all money lines, point spreads, totals and any other type of bet. Almost all legitimate US betting sites only use US odds, with positive numbers (+100, +222, etc.) for underdogs and negative numbers (-120, -155, etc.) for favorites.

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In this system, the rank number increases as the probability of winning decreases and the rank number decreases as the probability of winning increases.

This means that a +100 underdog has a better chance of winning than a +240 underdog (according to the book). Conversely, -190 favorites have a better chance of winning than -120 favorites.

For example, if the book throws a team—say, Patriots vs. Seahawks – Line +100, which means a 50% chance of winning or flipping a coin.

A bettor assigns a positive expected value (+EV) if they believe the Seahawks actually have a greater than 50% chance of winning this game. If the bettor believes that a team’s chance of winning is less than 50%, it gives a negative expected value (-EV).

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Weighting bets by expected value gives keen punters a major advantage over many other bookmakers and one of the few advantages they can get over a punt bet.

One of the common mistakes novice sports bettors make is to shuffle the board at the last minute or look at the Sunday morning NFL odds in hopes of drawing the day’s winners. Those looking for Expected Value or +EV usually consider the lines (and by extension the odds) that the bookies give each game as early as possible and try to determine if the bet is over or under valued.

The top NFL bookies have a habit of finding value early in the week. By Thursday, bookies had adjusted their lines, and in a fertile market like the NFL, value bets are only available for a short while before the market catches up.

Positive Expected Value betting is a basic method of sports betting and is underutilized by casual punters, often referred to as “the public”.

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A casual bettor is like a roulette player hoping his suit is called. Bookmaker +EV is a securities trader who wants to sell high and buy low.

While most sports bettors exaggerate their betting skills, it is almost impossible to win in the long run just hoping to find winners. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas (and now more than a dozen other states) have spent decades grading hundreds of thousands of sports events. They use the best bookmakers, programs and algorithms to find the most effective lines. Even the most profitable punters “only” win about 55% – 56% of bets.

Whether in Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado or Pennsylvania, there is a reason why many sportsbooks provide their customers with betting bonuses, free drinks and other perks; they get their money back.

Almost every retail and online bookmaker charges at least a 5 percent fee (4.54% to be exact) on the bet line, also known as live or “live”. For example, if a betting bet gives both teams a 50% chance of winning, the ranking of both teams is -110 instead of +100 (52.38% implied probability). This means that punters essentially pay an additional 5% tax on every bet, win or lose. A bettor must win 52.38% of their bets to break even.

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That being said, sports betting has historically had a profit of between 5% and 8% of the total money played, meaning that sports betting gives players some of the best chances of winning in any legal form of gambling. Few sports bettors make a significant amount of money in the long run, but smart betting can at least keep bettors in the game for fun.

The bettor must think critically about this. Expected value betting does not guarantee long-term success, but gambling regardless of EV guarantees long-term failure.

To use another analogy, the +EV bookmaker is like a smart supermarket shopper. A smart customer notices that the product prices are higher than the previous visit and finds a replacement accordingly. That same customer actually buys a discounted product that they might not have bought otherwise.

Sports betting works the same way. +EV bettors shop the online sports betting industry to find the biggest differences between what they think will happen and what is in the book through betting lines, rather than betting on a team that has a high probability of winning, but betting requires high price. means it will.

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To give a specific sports betting example, let’s say a bookie lists the Detroit Lions as -150 favorites against the Chicago Bears. A typical bettor thinks the Lions will win, so he bets on Detroit. A keen bettor realizes that the betting bet indicates that the Lions have a 60% chance of winning. Although they also believe the Lions will win, they say it is much less likely than in the book. In this scenario, they are instead looking at the Bears with +130 moneyline underdogs, which equates to a 43.48% chance of winning.

Bookmaker +EV believes the Bears have more than a 43.58% chance of winning, although they think the Lions are the better team – and seem more likely to win.

The value is in the Bears, so the +EV bettor is betting on Chicago. +EV can sometimes be found during the game when bettors are looking for an edge in the bookies that provide in-game betting.

; A +EV bettor will sometimes bet on a team they expect to lose if they have value.

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Picking odds from a betting line may seem like a complicated formula, but it’s actually the easiest part of EV betting.

For US ratios, the formula requires dividing 100 by the row number plus 100 if the ledger row is a positive value. This is similar to:

So if the game line of the book is +110, divide 110 by 110 plus 100. Bettors should remember that they must collect the line plus 100 first. This looks like this:

Converting negative ratios is just as easy. This time exactly plus 100. It looks like this:

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For example, using -190 requires the following. Again, the formula requires adding two parts of the denominator (or the other half of the equation) before dividing the numerator:

From there, a bettor can place a +EV bet not only by predicting whether a team will win, lose or close, but also by weighing the probability of such an event occurring against the book’s odds.

Punters may note that the odds in the example above do not add up to 100%. In the Bears-Lions example at the top of the page, the combined percentages of Chicago (+130 / 43.48% chance to win) and Detroit (-150 / 60% chance to win) equal 103.48%.

Or if you notice from the previous example of “even” bets, each of these two teams is assigned a rank of -110 or a probability of 52.38%. This is because of the vigil applied to almost every bet.

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This seemingly small fee accumulates over time, making it difficult for sports bettors to make a smaller profit. A truly balanced bet, such as a coin toss, should be +100 heads, +100 heads. Instead, Super Bowl coin toss bets are listed at -110 for heads and tails.

Because bettors who flip a Super Bowl coin are roughly split between heads and tails, the betting bet will make a profit regardless of the outcome. In particular, this is a classic example of an -EV bet, since the probability of getting both sides is 50%, and sportsbooks “charge” 52.38% for betting.

More traditional sports betting works much the same. For example, if the book receives a roughly even number of punters who bet that the favorite will cover and the favorite will not, the bookmaker is guaranteed to win money.

Of course, not every sports bet is a coin toss. + This is what EV bettors are looking for, keep your cool and wait patiently for a betting line that looks good.

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Unfortunately, punters cannot know with certainty which bets have a positive expected value. Some bookies rely on their own algorithms, others monitor injury reports, and some get at least a semi-reliable feel for the market and often know when it’s time to “buy low” and let them beat you. closing line

As mentioned earlier, the books are based on decades of experience and significant financial and human capital resources. The bookmaker uses this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create a line that the average bookie cannot realistically replicate with nearly the same accuracy. For the vast majority of sports